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Polkadot (DOT) Slips Below $2 — Can the 2026 Bullish Thesis Still Hold?

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Polkadot Under Pressure - Can DOT Still Deliver a 2026 Bull Run

Polkadot Under Pressure - Can DOT Still Deliver a 2026 Bull Run

Polkadot (DOT) is once again at a critical crossroads. After briefly reviving bullish hopes earlier this month, the momentum has faded, and price action is now leaning bearish. The loss of the key $2.00 psychological level has shifted market sentiment, putting sellers back in control and raising fresh questions about DOT’s near-term outlook.

At the time of writing, Polkadot is trading near $1.93, struggling to regain lost ground. What was once a major support level at $2 has now flipped into strong resistance, making any recovery more challenging. This shift in structure signals that traders are now more inclined to sell into strength rather than accumulate aggressively.

Technical Breakdown Signals Weakness

From a technical perspective, the chart has deteriorated notably. DOT’s drop below $2 on January 19 confirmed a bearish breakdown, and momentum indicators are reinforcing that narrative.

The MACD histogram has turned negative, showing that bearish momentum is building. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently hovering around the high-30s, suggests that although the token is no longer deeply oversold, buying pressure remains weak. This leaves room for another potential leg down if support levels fail.

The $1.84–$1.85 zone has now emerged as the most important short-term support. If DOT loses this range decisively, the downside could accelerate quickly as stop-loss orders and liquidations add pressure. On the 4-hour chart, the price is also trading below a descending trendline, reinforcing the broader downtrend structure.

For any meaningful recovery, DOT must first reclaim the $1.94 resistance and then push back above the $2 level. Without that, rallies may remain short-lived and vulnerable to renewed selling.

Fundamentals Offer Limited Immediate Support

On the fundamental side, Polkadot recently delivered a network upgrade, but the muted market reaction suggests a classic “sell the news” event. Much of the optimism may have already been priced in, leaving little fresh catalyst to drive immediate upside.

At the same time, broader macro conditions continue to favor large-cap assets like Bitcoin over mid-cap altcoins. With global liquidity still selective and risk appetite cautious, capital flows into DOT have remained subdued.

The Long-Term Catalyst: March 2026 Issuance Cut

Despite the current weakness, Polkadot’s longer-term bullish case has not disappeared — it may simply be delayed. A key turning point is expected on March 14, 2026, when Polkadot is projected to implement its first major issuance reduction, effectively lowering the rate of new token supply.

If DOT can stabilize above key support levels heading into that event, the reduced supply dynamics could help reset market sentiment and revive bullish momentum. In such a scenario, longer-term targets above $3 could re-enter discussions.

Bottom Line

For now, Polkadot remains under pressure. The battle to hold $1.85 support will likely determine whether the next move is a deeper correction or the start of a stabilization phase. Traders and investors should watch price structure closely, as reclaiming $2 remains the first major signal that bulls are ready to step back in.

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Disclaimer: Crypto products are unregulated as of this date in India. They could be highly volatile. At Unocoin, we understand that there is a need to protect consumer interests, as this form of trading and investment has risks that consumers may not be aware of. To ensure that consumers who deal in crypto products are not misled, they are advised to DYOR (Do Your Own Research).

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